Francis Fukuyama is an American philosopher, political scientist and economist. In his book The End of History and the Last Man, published in 1992, he formulated the concept of the "end of history" - a state of equilibrium that the world will enter due to the inevitability of liberal democracy and the cessation of any ideological conflict and opposition to political systems. On March 10, 2022, American Purpose magazine published Fukuyama’s article “Preparing for Defeat,” in which he talks about how the war in Ukraine could end.
Fukuyama spoke from Northern Macedonia and explained in 12 points why he believes Vladimir Putin will eventually turn out to be a loser. Worth to read.
"I am writing this from Skopje, Northern Macedonia, where I taught one of our Leadership Academy courses last week. After the war in Ukraine, there is nothing different here in terms of information available, except that I am in a neighboring time zone and the fact that there is more support Putin in the Balkans, but in other parts of Europe, much of which is due to Serbia and Serbia's visit to Sputnik.
Here are some predictions:
1. Russia is heading for a complete defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on the mistaken assumption that the Ukrainians were in favor of Russia and that their army would fail immediately after the invasion. Russian soldiers apparently wore uniforms for their victory parade in Kiev instead of additional ammunition and meals. At this point, Putin has invested most of his entire army in this operation - there are no huge reserves of forces he can call to add to the battle. Russian troops are stranded outside various Ukrainian cities where they face major supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, instead of happening slowly, through a war of attrition. The army on the ground will reach a point where it will be unable to supply or withdraw, and morale will evaporate. That is at least true in the north; The Russians are better off in the south, but those positions would be difficult to maintain if the north collapses.
3. A diplomatic solution to the war is not possible before that happens. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have suffered at the moment.
4. The United Nations Security Council has once again proved useless. The only useful thing was the vote in the General Assembly, which helps identify bad or unforeseen actors in the world.
5. The decisions of the Biden administration not to declare a no-fly zone or not to assist in the transfer of Polish MiGs were good; they kept their head down during a very emotional time. It is much better for the Ukrainians to defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all obvious possibilities of escalation. Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukraine's capabilities. Much more important is the continuous supply of Javelins, Stingers, TBs 2, medical supplies, communication equipment and information sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are a
eady being helped by NATO intelligence agents operating outside Ukraine.
6. The price Ukraine pays is, of course, enormous. But the biggest damage is caused by rockets and artillery, in which neither MiGs nor the no-fly zone can do much. The only thing that will stop the massacre is the defeat of the Russian army on the ground.
7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived as a powerful man; what does he have to offer after he shows incompetence and when he is deprived of the power of coercion?
8. The invasion has a
eady caused enormous damage to populists around the world, who evenly expressed sympathy for Putin before the attack. These include Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonar, Eric Zemmour, Marina Le Pen, Victor Orbán and of course, Donald Trump. War policy exposed their overtly authoritarian leanings.
9. The war has so far been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built a seemingly high-tech military force in the last decade, but has no combat experience. The deplorable performance of the Russian Air Force would probably be repeated by the Air Force of the People's Liberation Army of China, which similarly has no experience in managing complex air operations. We can hope that the Chinese leadership will not be deceived in terms of its own capabilities, as the Russians did when Beijing is considering a future move against Taiwan.
10. Let's hope that Taiwan itself will wake up with the need to prepare for the fight as the Ukrainians did and to resume military service. Let's not be defeatists too soon.
11. Turkish drones will become bestsellers.
12. Russia's defeat will enable a "new birth of freedom" and get us out of our fuss over the state of declining global democracy. The 1989 spirit will live on thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.