It’s WAR.... God I hope not.

[vasil]

It's not a big deal. there are aeady those who want to take the vacant place. what happened in Donetsk today didn't excite anyone (people who lived there work with me)?
you probably won't agree with me, but the Russians are much angrier these days and the war will be much bloodier further on.

[vanessa_fetish]

I'm trying so hard to be polite...

This is a must!

we can continue the discussion if you wish. now I need to rest, because tomorrow I have to work and pay taxes. taxes on which my country is at war. Tomorrow I will take my son to school, and my cousin's son died in the war, he was killed by my friend. perhaps.


p.s. Putin created a system in which my son had 3 heart surgeries for free. he is alive and probably will live for a long time. and many other things.I know very well how medicine works in Britain. we are not Israel , but it is not Yeltsin 's russia at all

So? Hitler even did some good, including free health care for Germans. Should we forgive his actions because of the good things? No, of course not.

Free healthcare here in Canada, and we're not invading anyone.  And we can say "F*ck Trudeau" without being tossed in jail, where if a Russian said "F*ck Putin* you'd be tossed in jail or poisoned.

[vanessa_fetish]

It's not a big deal. there are aeady those who want to take the vacant place. what happened in Donetsk today didn't excite anyone (people who lived there work with me)?
you probably won't agree with me, but the Russians are much angrier these days and the war will be much bloodier further on.

Russian anger should be focused on Putin. Because most of the blood being spilled is civillians and your own soldiers. And I feel bad for them, as they don't want to fight. Even my Putin loving friend here (she's Russian) is against his actions. My other Russian friends here in Canada left Russia because of Putin.

[Vixien]

As I said before, 30 years passed after war in my country. These days we can still hear people in Serbia (Putin supporters) who attacked us, that Vatican paid to Germany to destruct former Yugoslavia. OMG.
So, @vasil just confirmed that parallel universe exist.
That is OK, as long as they are not attacking those who does not thinking as they do.

[Like Ra]

Ha! Here's some latest news, that might shed some light on why/how it happened. Both scary and ridiculous.

It turned out, that an astronomical amount of money was paid to FSB to create a network in Ukraine, which should both watch for the mood, trends in UA and make it easier to take UA over (e.g. by propaganda, preparing the public opinion, etc) - something like Crimea. Apparently, everything was stolen, nothing was done, but it was reported to Putin, that UA is ready, and the operation can be started. Putin is usually very careful, cautious, and quite thoughtful, but in this case he was bitten by the corrupt system of mediocrity he created.

The guys who were responsible for the secret preparations are under house arrest. But ... too late ...

[Like Ra]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakistocracy

[Vixien]

Ha! Here's some latest news, that might shed some light on why/how it happened. Both scary and ridiculous.

It turned out, that an astronomical amount of money was paid to FSB to create a network in Ukraine, which should both watch for the mood, trends in UA and make it easier to take UA over (e.g. by propaganda, preparing the public opinion, etc) - something like Crimea. Apparently, everything was stolen, nothing was done, but it was reported to Putin, that UA is ready, and the operation can be started. Putin is usually very careful and quite thoughtful, but in this case he was bitten by the corrupt system of mediocrity he created.

The guys who were responsible for the secret preparations are under house arrest. But ... too late ...

Interesting. What is the source of that story ?

[Like Ra]

Interesting. What is the source of that story ?

Not yet confirmed leaks, rumours, various interviews (e.g. with Christo Grozev from "Belling Cat").

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world...34350.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...rrest.html
https://fsb.dossier.center/beseda
https://meduza.io/feature/2022/03/11/put...-v-ukraine

Source: https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status...6540515328

[Vixien]

Francis Fukuyama is an American philosopher, political scientist and economist. In his book The End of History and the Last Man, published in 1992, he formulated the concept of the "end of history" - a state of equilibrium that the world will enter due to the inevitability of liberal democracy and the cessation of any ideological conflict and opposition to political systems. On March 10, 2022, American Purpose magazine published Fukuyama’s article “Preparing for Defeat,” in which he talks about how the war in Ukraine could end.

Fukuyama spoke from Northern Macedonia and explained in 12 points why he believes Vladimir Putin will eventually turn out to be a loser. Worth to read.

"I am writing this from Skopje, Northern Macedonia, where I taught one of our Leadership Academy courses last week. After the war in Ukraine, there is nothing different here in terms of information available, except that I am in a neighboring time zone and the fact that there is more support Putin in the Balkans, but in other parts of Europe, much of which is due to Serbia and Serbia's visit to Sputnik.

Here are some predictions:

1. Russia is heading for a complete defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on the mistaken assumption that the Ukrainians were in favor of Russia and that their army would fail immediately after the invasion. Russian soldiers apparently wore uniforms for their victory parade in Kiev instead of additional ammunition and meals. At this point, Putin has invested most of his entire army in this operation - there are no huge reserves of forces he can call to add to the battle. Russian troops are stranded outside various Ukrainian cities where they face major supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, instead of happening slowly, through a war of attrition. The army on the ground will reach a point where it will be unable to supply or withdraw, and morale will evaporate. That is at least true in the north; The Russians are better off in the south, but those positions would be difficult to maintain if the north collapses.

3. A diplomatic solution to the war is not possible before that happens. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have suffered at the moment.

4. The United Nations Security Council has once again proved useless. The only useful thing was the vote in the General Assembly, which helps identify bad or unforeseen actors in the world.

5. The decisions of the Biden administration not to declare a no-fly zone or not to assist in the transfer of Polish MiGs were good; they kept their head down during a very emotional time. It is much better for the Ukrainians to defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all obvious possibilities of escalation. Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukraine's capabilities. Much more important is the continuous supply of Javelins, Stingers, TBs 2, medical supplies, communication equipment and information sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are aeady being helped by NATO intelligence agents operating outside Ukraine.

6. The price Ukraine pays is, of course, enormous. But the biggest damage is caused by rockets and artillery, in which neither MiGs nor the no-fly zone can do much. The only thing that will stop the massacre is the defeat of the Russian army on the ground.

7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived as a powerful man; what does he have to offer after he shows incompetence and when he is deprived of the power of coercion?

8. The invasion has aeady caused enormous damage to populists around the world, who evenly expressed sympathy for Putin before the attack. These include Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonar, Eric Zemmour, Marina Le Pen, Victor Orbán and of course, Donald Trump. War policy exposed their overtly authoritarian leanings.

9. The war has so far been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built a seemingly high-tech military force in the last decade, but has no combat experience. The deplorable performance of the Russian Air Force would probably be repeated by the Air Force of the People's Liberation Army of China, which similarly has no experience in managing complex air operations. We can hope that the Chinese leadership will not be deceived in terms of its own capabilities, as the Russians did when Beijing is considering a future move against Taiwan.

10. Let's hope that Taiwan itself will wake up with the need to prepare for the fight as the Ukrainians did and to resume military service. Let's not be defeatists too soon.

11. Turkish drones will become bestsellers.

12. Russia's defeat will enable a "new birth of freedom" and get us out of our fuss over the state of declining global democracy. The 1989 spirit will live on thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.

[Like Ra]

Russia is heading for a complete defeat in Ukraine.

Errrm.... Politically and economically Russia lost immediately. As for the "physical victory" - it can be a Pyrrhic victory (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrrhic_victory) - they can make Dresdens out of the biggest cities.

Russian planning was incompetent, based on the mistaken assumption that the Ukrainians were in favor of Russia and that their army would fail immediately after the invasion.

Absolutely.

there are no huge reserves of forces he can call to add to the battle.

There is still a huge reserve - Russia has the biggest army in the world.

Russian troops are stranded outside various Ukrainian cities where they face major supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

Very true.

The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, instead of happening slowly, through a war of attrition. The army on the ground will reach a point where it will be unable to supply or withdraw, and morale will evaporate.

It happened aeady and almost immediately, yet the operation continues. What means Russia solved this issue.

There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have suffered at the moment.

Yes, there are. If RU acknowledges the original UA borders, and UA will agree to distant itself from NATO. Both are very possible, as UA is disappointed in NATO, and RU can still make a good face.

The United Nations Security Council has once again proved useless. The only useful thing was the vote in the General Assembly, which helps identify bad or unforeseen actors in the world.

Not quite. The heavy sanctions and global cancel culture is another way to conduct a war.

5. The decisions of the Biden administration not to declare a no-fly zone or not to assist in the transfer of Polish MiGs were good; they kept their head down during a very emotional time. It is much better for the Ukrainians to defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all obvious possibilities of escalation. Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukraine's capabilities. Much more important is the continuous supply of Javelins, Stingers, TBs 2, medical supplies, communication equipment and information sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are aeady being helped by NATO intelligence agents operating outside Ukraine.

Questionable and contradictory. Yes, there is no direct war. But supplying weapons is considered a war by RU. And if NATO supplies the weapons anyway, why not to send MiGs and Patriots (Patriot is not an attack weapon!) to UA?

But the biggest damage is caused by rockets and artillery, in which neither MiGs nor the no-fly zone can do much. The only thing that will stop the massacre is the defeat of the Russian army on the ground.

Not true. UA says that the most damage is caused by bombing, not by rockets or artillery. Patriots and no-fly zone will definitely help.

7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived as a powerful man; what does he have to offer after he shows incompetence and when he is deprived of the power of coercion?

My original prediction was 3-4 months max. OTOH, he can always blame others, including shamans, who performed a ritual before the invasion.

The war has so far been a good lesson for China.

True. In both good (they will think twice-thrice..) and bad (they will invest more in the proper propaganda and proactive anti-sanction measures).

Let's hope that Taiwan itself will wake up with the need to prepare for the fight as the Ukrainians did and to resume military service. Let's not be defeatists too soon.

That's really ridiculous. Think of Hong-Kong. Only the global public opinion might stop them.

Turkish drones will become bestsellers.

Yep!

Russia's defeat will enable a "new birth of freedom" and get us out of our fuss over the state of declining global democracy. The 1989 spirit will live on thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.

Russian history shows that Russian citizens always and unmistakably choose tyrants. The only hope is the new generation which does not remember non-Internet non-smartphone time.